Monday, February 18, 2019
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped February 6, 2019
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 02/06/2019
updated a/o 02/15/2019
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 02/15/2019
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 02/01/2019

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up


MPT Newsroom

WEEKLY RESEARCH: Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, February 17th 2019, with data as of the Friday, February 15th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models. MPT Top Down View remains Bearish at -1.  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Energy, and Industrials outperformed.  Utilities, and Real Estate, lagged.   The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features and changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The February, 2019 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday, February 1st, 2019. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, February 3rd, 2019.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Sunday at 11:30 PM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Thursday, February 7th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in February. Our universe of coverage is 4,013 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: For the second consecutive month, the February asset allocation projection carries a Small-Capitalization bet, and favors Growth.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was excellent in January.  The aggregate top-down model remains Bearish at "-1" this week, with the Technical Model contributing more to the Bearish outcome in dropping to score "-3."  The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model (+0.78) degraded more dramatically last week, continues to trend lower and remains Bearish, with reduced optimism for longer-term earnings and GDP numbers.  GDPNOW Q4, 2018 estimate collapsed to 1.5%.  The second Commerce Department Q3 estimate came in at 3.5%.  Yields were higher, with spreads falling to 14 bp (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar, (96.74), continued recent strength.  It experienced a cycle peak approaching 98 in 2018.  Gold tested short-term support, then  closed higher at $1322.10.  The base here appears substantial.  It remains a long-term buy, and we expect 2019 to show even more strengthHowever in the short-term Gold remains in an overbought condition.  $1550 remains our target high, longer-term, in 2019.  Inflationary Forces are mixed with CPI below expectations and a last GDPNOW "sticky" Inflation number higher at 2.5%.  Still, Wage Inflation is spiking higher with two consecutive months of +3% gains, and is 1/2 of the inflation equation.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains at 1:00 - and in an early accumulation phase.

Top-Down Look Back: Equity selection for the trailing 36 Months has been excellent.

In The News



In the pursuit of any endeavor it is important to realize the contributions that others have made to ones success. The product that we deliver in the following pages is no exception. For the knowledge derived from research in the area of Earnings Estimates and Earnings Surprise we are, as is every serious student of this subject, deeply indebted to Professors Rendleman, Latane, and Jones for papers published at both Duke University and the University of North Carolina.

Thanks also to Dirk van Dijk formerly of IBES and now of Zachs, and Eugene Hawkins & Stanley Chamberlain both of IBES. We credit work in the area of Insider Activity done by Joseph E. Finnerty, James Lorie & Victor Niederhoffer, Kenneth P. Nunn & Gerald P. Madden, Stephen H. Penman, and Dr. Martin Zweig. An early 1984 study on Value vs Earnings markets by Theodore M. Theodore of Morgan Stanley, Inc. was the near term trigger for the Market Profile study presented in these pages. We thank Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffet for teaching us the meaning of value, and on the other side of the coin, Peter Lynch & John Herold for reminding us that at some point value must be expressed as earnings. The Technical study is primarily Relative Strength (Price & Volume). Jim Sibbet, Curtiss Dahl & P.J. Kaufman are just a few of the people to whom we owe credit to in this area.

We would also like to thank the many Money Management Professionals across the country whose input we sought and whose opinions were so unselfishly given during the development of this project. Thanks to them, this is truly a product developed by money managers for money managers. Finally a special thanks is owed to our investors who provided us with the freedom to pursue our dream. September 1, 1989 Seattle, Washington.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.