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Hardcopy Research: last shipped September 3, 2021
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 09/03/2021
Workbook
updated a/o 08/27/2021
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 09/17/2021
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updated a/o 08/27/2021

  MPT Interim Research Update 3/10/2020  

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Interim Research Update 031020 

Interim Research Update 022820

 

WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, August 1 2021, with data as of the Friday, July 30 2021 SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.  MPT Top Down model is Negative at "-1"  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Materials, and Energu outperformed.  Consumer Staples, Communications, lagged. The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features, and changes, is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The August, 2021 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday July 30. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, Aug. 1, 2021.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Monday before 9:00 AM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook will be shipped on Thursday, August 5th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in August. Our current universe of coverage is 3,673 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The August asset allocation projection Favors Large Capitalization and Value.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was poor in July, with 6 of 8 screens underperforming the S&P 500.  The Aggregate top-down model is Bearish at "-1."  The Technical Model is Neutral at "0".   The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model, (+65.6) rocketed to new, historical highs, but on a week over week basis fell in the last period of July. It is now Neutral. Q2 GDP Recorded 6.5%.  MPT's Earnings-Momentum-model-based Q1, '20 GDP estimate closed at 6%.   MPT  estimate for Q3, '21 GDP is +5.4%.  Yields fell again, with spreads lower at 105 bps. (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar was lower 92.19.  Collapse to the 88 level is ahead. Gold remains in position to best 2020 highs, closing at $1817.20 the ounce. BUY.   Expect high volatility in this metal.  Inflationary Forces have strengthened, with the GDPNOW "slow moving" CPI model for June rising by 3.5% (1-month Annualized).

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," stays 9:00. Strategy is to sell strength.

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In the pursuit of any endeavor it is important to realize the contributions that others have made to ones success. The product that we deliver in the following pages is no exception. For the knowledge derived from research in the area of Earnings Estimates and Earnings Surprise we are, as is every serious student of this subject, deeply indebted to Professors Rendleman, Latane, and Jones for papers published at both Duke University and the University of North Carolina.

Thanks also to Dirk van Dijk formerly of IBES and now of Zachs, and Eugene Hawkins & Stanley Chamberlain both of IBES. We credit work in the area of Insider Activity done by Joseph E. Finnerty, James Lorie & Victor Niederhoffer, Kenneth P. Nunn & Gerald P. Madden, Stephen H. Penman, and Dr. Martin Zweig. An early 1984 study on Value vs Earnings markets by Theodore M. Theodore of Morgan Stanley, Inc. was the near term trigger for the Market Profile study presented in these pages. We thank Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffet for teaching us the meaning of value, and on the other side of the coin, Peter Lynch & John Herold for reminding us that at some point value must be expressed as earnings. The Technical study is primarily Relative Strength (Price & Volume). Jim Sibbet, Curtiss Dahl & P.J. Kaufman are just a few of the people to whom we owe credit to in this area.

We would also like to thank the many Money Management Professionals across the country whose input we sought and whose opinions were so unselfishly given during the development of this project. Thanks to them, this is truly a product developed by money managers for money managers. Finally a special thanks is owed to our investors who provided us with the freedom to pursue our dream. September 1, 1989 Seattle, Washington.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.