Thursday, April 18, 2019
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped April 3, 2019
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 04/4/2019
Workbook
updated a/o 04/12/2019
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 04/12/2019
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 04/01/2019

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up

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MPT Newsroom

WEEKLY RESEARCH: Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, April 14th 2019, with data as of the Friday, April 12th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models. MPT Top Down View Bearish at -2.  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Energy, and Financials (2nd week) outperformed.  Healthcare, and Materials, lagged.   Energy, Basic Materials, and Aerospace/Defense remain Over-weights.  The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features and changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The April, 2019 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday, March 29th, 2019. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, March 31st, 2019.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Sunday at 10:40 PM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Thursday, April 4th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in April. Our universe of coverage is 3,995 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: For first month in 4. the April asset allocation projection carries no clear Capitalization bet, and favors Value over Growth.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was poor in March.  The aggregate top-down model is Bearish at "-2" this week, with the Technical Model contributing to the Bearish outcome, scoring "-3."  The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model (+3.42) improved in absolute terms, and has changed the trend to Neutral (from Bearish).  It is now more constructive on term earnings and GDP numbers for 2019.  The final reading on the economy for Q4 of 2018, was lowered a GDP of 2.2% - from 2.6%.  The GDPNOW Q1, 2019 estimate rose again last week to 2.3%.  Yields were again higher, with spreads remaining narrow, but stable, at 16 bp (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar slipped again to (96.07).  It experienced a cycle peak approaching 98 in 2018.  Gold was flat at $1295.20.  The base here appears substantial, and any additional weakness should be bought into.  It remains a long-term buy, and we expect 2019 to show more strength.  $1550 remains our target high.  Inflationary Forces are more focused toward higher, with the release of March PPI and CPI data, price pressures, and already established wage Inflation spiking higher with two consecutive months of +3% gains.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains at 2:00 - and in an accumulation phase.

Top-Down Look Back: Equity selection for the trailing 36 Months has been excellent.

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In the pursuit of any endeavor it is important to realize the contributions that others have made to ones success. The product that we deliver in the following pages is no exception. For the knowledge derived from research in the area of Earnings Estimates and Earnings Surprise we are, as is every serious student of this subject, deeply indebted to Professors Rendleman, Latane, and Jones for papers published at both Duke University and the University of North Carolina.

Thanks also to Dirk van Dijk formerly of IBES and now of Zachs, and Eugene Hawkins & Stanley Chamberlain both of IBES. We credit work in the area of Insider Activity done by Joseph E. Finnerty, James Lorie & Victor Niederhoffer, Kenneth P. Nunn & Gerald P. Madden, Stephen H. Penman, and Dr. Martin Zweig. An early 1984 study on Value vs Earnings markets by Theodore M. Theodore of Morgan Stanley, Inc. was the near term trigger for the Market Profile study presented in these pages. We thank Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffet for teaching us the meaning of value, and on the other side of the coin, Peter Lynch & John Herold for reminding us that at some point value must be expressed as earnings. The Technical study is primarily Relative Strength (Price & Volume). Jim Sibbet, Curtiss Dahl & P.J. Kaufman are just a few of the people to whom we owe credit to in this area.

We would also like to thank the many Money Management Professionals across the country whose input we sought and whose opinions were so unselfishly given during the development of this project. Thanks to them, this is truly a product developed by money managers for money managers. Finally a special thanks is owed to our investors who provided us with the freedom to pursue our dream. September 1, 1989 Seattle, Washington.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.