Saturday, October 20, 2018
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped October 4, 2018
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 10/04/2018
updated a/o 10/12/2018
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 10/12/2018
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 09/28/2018

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up


MPT Newsroom

WEEKLY RESEARCH: Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, October 14th 2018, with data as of the Friday, October 12th 28th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models. MPT Top Down View turns modestly Bullish ("+1").  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Utilities, and Consumer Staples did best.  Materials, and Industrials lagged.  The Markets cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but are instead a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features and changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The October, 2018 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday, September 28th, 2018. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, September 30th, 2018.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Sunday, before 11:00 PM, and include refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Friday, October 5th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in October.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The October asset allocation projection carries no Capitalization or Value/Growth preference.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was poor over the September period.  The aggregate top-down model flips to slightly Bullish at "+1" this week, and the Technical model is higher, and clearly Bullish at "+3".  The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model (+4.38) weakened again, but remains Neutral at the moment.  GDPNOW Q3, 2018 estimate rose to 4.2%.  (4% looks like a magic attractor) The final Commerce Department Q2 estimate at 4.2%.  Yields came in, and spreads did as well. (To 30 bp 2 to 10 year).  We anticipate higher rates yet ahead for 2018.  Trouble has arisen with the 10yr approaching 3.3%.  While some P/E compression has taken place in 2018, high valuations continue present for equities.  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar (94.91) appears to have stabilized, but is having difficulty breaking much higher.  Gold launched to close above basing resistance at 1222.00.  The base appears substantial, prices remain oversold on the weeklies, and the metal should rally nicely into year-end.  It is a long-term buy, but our year-end target remains reduced to $1410 (down from 1550.)  Inflationary Forces pulled back a bit, with CPI at 2.7%, and PPI at 2.9%, however a recent GDPNOW "sticky" Inflation number up-ticked strongly to 2.7%.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains at 11:00.

Top-Down Look Back: Equity selection for the trailing 24 Months has been good.  A longer, 79 month, look-back confirms bottom-up performance, with all but 1 of the 8 screens outperforming the S&P 500 over that period.

In The News



In the pursuit of any endeavor it is important to realize the contributions that others have made to ones success. The product that we deliver in the following pages is no exception. For the knowledge derived from research in the area of Earnings Estimates and Earnings Surprise we are, as is every serious student of this subject, deeply indebted to Professors Rendleman, Latane, and Jones for papers published at both Duke University and the University of North Carolina.

Thanks also to Dirk van Dijk formerly of IBES and now of Zachs, and Eugene Hawkins & Stanley Chamberlain both of IBES. We credit work in the area of Insider Activity done by Joseph E. Finnerty, James Lorie & Victor Niederhoffer, Kenneth P. Nunn & Gerald P. Madden, Stephen H. Penman, and Dr. Martin Zweig. An early 1984 study on Value vs Earnings markets by Theodore M. Theodore of Morgan Stanley, Inc. was the near term trigger for the Market Profile study presented in these pages. We thank Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffet for teaching us the meaning of value, and on the other side of the coin, Peter Lynch & John Herold for reminding us that at some point value must be expressed as earnings. The Technical study is primarily Relative Strength (Price & Volume). Jim Sibbet, Curtiss Dahl & P.J. Kaufman are just a few of the people to whom we owe credit to in this area.

We would also like to thank the many Money Management Professionals across the country whose input we sought and whose opinions were so unselfishly given during the development of this project. Thanks to them, this is truly a product developed by money managers for money managers. Finally a special thanks is owed to our investors who provided us with the freedom to pursue our dream. September 1, 1989 Seattle, Washington.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.