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Hardcopy Research: last shipped May 7, 2020
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 05/7/2020
Workbook
updated a/o 05/22/2020
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updated a/o 06/01/2020

  MPT Interim Research Update 3/10/2020  

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Interim Research Update 031020 

Interim Research Update 022820

 

WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, May 24th 2020, with data as of the Friday, May 22th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.  MPT Top Down model drops to Neutral at "0."  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Cyclicals, and Energy outperformed.  Consumer Staples, and Health Care, lagged. The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features, and changes, is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The June, 2020 edition of Market Profile Theorems will be run based on the data close-out of Friday, May 29th. Your specific monthly data files will be pushed to you on Sunday, May 31st, 2020.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Sunday before 11:00 PM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Thursday, June 4th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in June. Our current universe of coverage is 3,821 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The May asset allocation projection carries no clear Style bets.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was good in April.  The Aggregate top-down model slipped to Neutral at "0," this week.  The Technical Model also slipped to "0".   The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model, (-5.57) inched higher, but remains Bearish in trend.  The official 1st reading on the economy for Q1 of 2020, was -4.8% and falling.  MPT's Earnings Momentum model based Q2, '20 GDP estimate remains -18.0%.   GDPNOW Q2 estimate flat at -41.9%.  Yields were higher, with spreads closing flat at 49 b.p. (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar slipped back below par, closing at 99.89.  Gold paused, slipping to $1735.50.  Expect high volatility in this metal.  Our 2020 target remains $1850.  Inflationary Forces are mixed, as the GDPNOW slow moving CPI model for April  fell to a negative 1.4% (1-month Annualized).

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains 4:00. Bottoming process well underway. Buy.

In The News




businessweek.com

 

 

In the pursuit of any endeavor it is important to realize the contributions that others have made to ones success. The product that we deliver in the following pages is no exception. For the knowledge derived from research in the area of Earnings Estimates and Earnings Surprise we are, as is every serious student of this subject, deeply indebted to Professors Rendleman, Latane, and Jones for papers published at both Duke University and the University of North Carolina.

Thanks also to Dirk van Dijk formerly of IBES and now of Zachs, and Eugene Hawkins & Stanley Chamberlain both of IBES. We credit work in the area of Insider Activity done by Joseph E. Finnerty, James Lorie & Victor Niederhoffer, Kenneth P. Nunn & Gerald P. Madden, Stephen H. Penman, and Dr. Martin Zweig. An early 1984 study on Value vs Earnings markets by Theodore M. Theodore of Morgan Stanley, Inc. was the near term trigger for the Market Profile study presented in these pages. We thank Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffet for teaching us the meaning of value, and on the other side of the coin, Peter Lynch & John Herold for reminding us that at some point value must be expressed as earnings. The Technical study is primarily Relative Strength (Price & Volume). Jim Sibbet, Curtiss Dahl & P.J. Kaufman are just a few of the people to whom we owe credit to in this area.

We would also like to thank the many Money Management Professionals across the country whose input we sought and whose opinions were so unselfishly given during the development of this project. Thanks to them, this is truly a product developed by money managers for money managers. Finally a special thanks is owed to our investors who provided us with the freedom to pursue our dream. September 1, 1989 Seattle, Washington.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.