Friday, August 17, 2018
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Hardcopy Research: last shipped August 1, 2018
Online Research:

Strategist updated a/o 08/01/2018
updated a/o 08/10/2018
File Downloads Weekly >> updated a/o 08/10/2018
File Downloads Monthly >> updated a/o 07/27/2018

Media: 02/07/2012: 2011 Top Performers

08/16/2011: 6 stocks insiders are snapping up


MPT Newsroom

WEEKLY RESEARCH: Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, August 12th 2018, with data as of the Friday, August 10th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models. MPT Top Down View remains Bearish at ("-2").  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Technology, and Cyclicals did best.  Consumer Staples, and Materials under-performed.  Weakness in Finance and Construction on the Insider Model. The Markets cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but are instead a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features and changes is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The August, 2018 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday, July 27th, 2018. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, July 29th, 2018.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available Monday morning at 7:00, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Friday, August 2nd. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in August.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The August asset allocation projection carries a Large-Capitalization preference, and favors Value.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was poor over the July period.  However for 2018 to-date, all but 1, screen beat the S&P performance.  The aggregate top-down model remains Bearish "-2" this week.  The Technical model remains Bearish at "-3".  We are on a Technical Correction Alert of -5 to -7%.  The trend of the Top-down Earnings Model (+6.01) continues to improve, and remains Neutral in Trend at the moment.  In a positive vein, GDPNOW Q3, 2018 estimate is 4.3%, and the first Commerce Department Q2 estimate came in at a strong 4.1% last week.  Yields were lower, with spreads falling to 26 bp (2 to 10 year).  Odds remain high, that the prior lower bound of the spread (35bps) is now strong resistance.  We anticipate higher rates ahead for 2018.  While some P/E compression has taken place in 2018, high valuations continue present for equities.  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar (96.22) was again higher.   Gold continues to stabilize around 1220. It is very oversold. The coming week should bring a rebound in prices.  It is a long-term buy, but our year-end target remains reduced to $1410 (down from 1550.)  Inflationary Forces Continue to Gain Strength, with CPI at 2.95%, and PPI at 3.3%.

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains at 11:00.

Top-Down Look Back: Equity selection for '18 has this far been very good, with all but 2 MPT Model Screens outperforming the S&P 500.  A longer, 78 month, look-back confirms bottom-up performance, with all but 1 of the 8 screens outperforming the S&P 500 over that period.

In The News



In the pursuit of any endeavor it is important to realize the contributions that others have made to ones success. The product that we deliver in the following pages is no exception. For the knowledge derived from research in the area of Earnings Estimates and Earnings Surprise we are, as is every serious student of this subject, deeply indebted to Professors Rendleman, Latane, and Jones for papers published at both Duke University and the University of North Carolina.

Thanks also to Dirk van Dijk formerly of IBES and now of Zachs, and Eugene Hawkins & Stanley Chamberlain both of IBES. We credit work in the area of Insider Activity done by Joseph E. Finnerty, James Lorie & Victor Niederhoffer, Kenneth P. Nunn & Gerald P. Madden, Stephen H. Penman, and Dr. Martin Zweig. An early 1984 study on Value vs Earnings markets by Theodore M. Theodore of Morgan Stanley, Inc. was the near term trigger for the Market Profile study presented in these pages. We thank Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffet for teaching us the meaning of value, and on the other side of the coin, Peter Lynch & John Herold for reminding us that at some point value must be expressed as earnings. The Technical study is primarily Relative Strength (Price & Volume). Jim Sibbet, Curtiss Dahl & P.J. Kaufman are just a few of the people to whom we owe credit to in this area.

We would also like to thank the many Money Management Professionals across the country whose input we sought and whose opinions were so unselfishly given during the development of this project. Thanks to them, this is truly a product developed by money managers for money managers. Finally a special thanks is owed to our investors who provided us with the freedom to pursue our dream. September 1, 1989 Seattle, Washington.

Copyright ©2003 Market Profile Theorems, Inc. All rights reserved.

The data contained in this report were taken from statistical services, reports in our possession, and from other sources. The opinions and estimates expressed are our own, and we make no representation either as to the accuracy or as to the existence of other facts or interpretations which might be significant. The information herein was gathered from responsible sources but we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. We may from time to time have a position in the securities described in this report and may buy or sell such securities.