Interim Research Update 031020 

Interim Research Update 022820

WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, May 24th 2020, with data as of the Friday, May 22th SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.  MPT Top Down model drops to Neutral at "0."  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Cyclicals, and Energy outperformed.  Consumer Staples, and Health Care, lagged. The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features, and changes, is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The June, 2020 edition of Market Profile Theorems will be run based on the data close-out of Friday, May 29th. Your specific monthly data files will be pushed to you on Sunday, May 31st, 2020.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Sunday before 11:00 PM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook should have arrived on Thursday, June 4th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in June. Our current universe of coverage is 3,821 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The May asset allocation projection carries no clear Style bets.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was good in April.  The Aggregate top-down model slipped to Neutral at "0," this week.  The Technical Model also slipped to "0".   The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model, (-5.57) inched higher, but remains Bearish in trend.  The official 1st reading on the economy for Q1 of 2020, was -4.8% and falling.  MPT's Earnings Momentum model based Q2, '20 GDP estimate remains -18.0%.   GDPNOW Q2 estimate flat at -41.9%.  Yields were higher, with spreads closing flat at 49 b.p. (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar slipped back below par, closing at 99.89.  Gold paused, slipping to $1735.50.  Expect high volatility in this metal.  Our 2020 target remains $1850.  Inflationary Forces are mixed, as the GDPNOW slow moving CPI model for April  fell to a negative 1.4% (1-month Annualized).

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," remains 4:00. Bottoming process well underway. Buy.