Interim Research Update 031020 

Interim Research Update 022820

WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, October 3 2021, with data as of the Friday, October 1 2021 SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.  MPT Top Down model is Negative at "-2"  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Energy (3rd week), and Communications outperformed.  Health Care, and Technology, lagged. The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features, and changes, is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The October, 2021 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday October 1. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, October 3, 2021.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Monday before 9:00 AM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook will be shipped on Thursday, October 7th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in October. Our current universe of coverage is 3,651 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The October asset allocation projection is neutral on Capitalization and favors Growth.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was excellent in September, with all 8 screens out-performing the S&P 500.  The Aggregate top-down model is Bullish at "+2."  The Technical Model is very Bullish at "+4".   The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model, (+42.45) continued to retreat from historical highs. It is now Neutral. Q2 GDP Recorded 6.5%.  MPT's Earnings-Momentum-model-based Q1, '20 GDP estimate closed at 6%.   MPT  estimate for Q3, '21 GDP dropped to +3.3%.  Yields rose, with spreads higher at 121 bps. (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar was higher within a downtrend 94.05.  Collapse to the 88 level is ahead. Gold remains in position to best 2020 highs, closing at $1758.40 the ounce. BUY.   Expect high volatility in this metal.  Inflationary Forces have strengthened, with the GDPNOW "slow moving" CPI model for rising by 3.3% (1-month Annualized).

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," stays 9:00. Strategy switches to buy weakness.