Interim Research Update 031020 

Interim Research Update 022820

WEEKLY RESEARCH:  Weekly Insider Data and Commentary files were last updated on Sunday, August 1 2021, with data as of the Friday, July 30 2021 SEC closeout. Please review your Commentary File for particulars. The Insider portion of the Workbook section of the Website was populated with new weekly data and e-mail versions were distributed as well. (Data for all companies, and broad strategy commentary highlights) The Insider Commentary file of the past weekend includes an updated, thumbnail Strategic view of the Markets from the top-down perspective of all models.  MPT Top Down model is Negative at "-1"  On a price performance basis, at the ETF Sector level, Materials, and Energu outperformed.  Consumer Staples, Communications, lagged. The Market cannot be viewed as a singular snapshot, but operates as a dynamic, moving picture. Employing MPT research to follow and anticipate the most probable trend features, and changes, is an important aspect of the research.

MONTHLY RESEARCH: The August, 2021 edition of Market Profile Theorems was run based on the data close-out of Friday July 30. Your specific monthly data files were pushed to you on Sunday, Aug. 1, 2021.  WEB site data (Workbook section) were available on Monday before 9:00 AM, and included refreshed Probability Plots, Screening features, and Files located in the monthly File Download section of the Web-site. The Strategy notebook will be shipped on Thursday, August 5th. If you did not receive your files, or the notebook by the dates indicated, please contact us.  Reach us by e-mail or call 206-890-6789 if you wish to schedule a conference call in August. Our current universe of coverage is 3,673 issues.

GENERAL COMMENTARY: The August asset allocation projection Favors Large Capitalization and Value.  MPT bottom-up model performance, relative to the S&P 500, was poor in July, with 6 of 8 screens underperforming the S&P 500.  The Aggregate top-down model is Bearish at "-1."  The Technical Model is Neutral at "0".   The tenor of the Top-down Earnings Model, (+65.6) rocketed to new, historical highs, but on a week over week basis fell in the last period of July. It is now Neutral. Q2 GDP Recorded 6.5%.  MPT's Earnings-Momentum-model-based Q1, '20 GDP estimate closed at 6%.   MPT  estimate for Q3, '21 GDP is +5.4%.  Yields fell again, with spreads lower at 105 bps. (2 to 10 year).  See the weekly Insider Commentaries, and the monthly Strategist, (Green Book) for further details and interpretation.  The Dollar was lower 92.19.  Collapse to the 88 level is ahead. Gold remains in position to best 2020 highs, closing at $1817.20 the ounce. BUY.   Expect high volatility in this metal.  Inflationary Forces have strengthened, with the GDPNOW "slow moving" CPI model for June rising by 3.5% (1-month Annualized).

The Market Cycle, in terms of MPT's "Market Clock," stays 9:00. Strategy is to sell strength.